16-DPA2020-07-28 16:44:29 16-DPA International Business Daily

　　Imported coal, as an important means of regulating domestic coal prices, plays a very important role in the domestic coal market. Since the coal import policy was tightened in March this year, market participants have paid much attention to whether the policy has room for relaxation. The import policy is mainly related to the domestic coal supply and demand situation. Focusing on China's coal imports in the first half of the year and the domestic coal supply and demand situation, Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Ren Huiyun believes that the possibility of China's coal import customs clearance policy is relatively limited.

　　 According to Ren Huiyun, in the summer of this year, the inventory of power plants nationwide has continued to operate at a relatively high level, and the enthusiasm for coal transportation has slowed. As of July 13th, 140 million tons of coal stocks in power plants were coordinated nationwide, an increase of 5.1 million tons compared with the end of June, which has reached the highest level in summer history, and the number of days available for inventory has risen to 27 days. The inventory of key power plants nationwide has also risen to a high of about 86 million tons, and the number of days available remains above 22 days. After entering June, with the improvement of the water supply situation, China's hydropower growth rate has been rapid.

      "Hydropower is squeezing the market share of thermal power. The daily consumption of thermal power plants in coastal areas has not increased significantly, and the number of days available for 16-DPA inventory continues to operate at a relatively high level." Ren Huiyun said, judging from the current Qinhuangdao Port anchorage ship data, the previous The main downstream user of imported coal, the Southern Power Plant, has limited enthusiasm for purchasing ships from the North.

      Although the coal price at the port has risen to about 600 yuan/ton in the early stage, 16-DPA has touched the lower limit of the coal price red range proposed in the previous "Memorandum on Stabilizing Abnormal Price Fluctuations in the Coal Market", but according to the research of Zhuo Chuang Information, the port in 2019 The ratio of market coal to Changxie coal is about 2:8. This means that although coal prices have risen sharply in the previous period, the actual market share of high-priced coal is relatively limited. In terms of Changxie Coal, which accounts for a larger proportion, the current price of Changxie coal for large coal companies is mostly around 570 yuan/ton and below. Under the guarantee of low-price long-term coal, downstream users have very limited acceptance of high-priced market coal.

　　According to customs statistics, from January to June, China’s cumulative imports of coal and lignite were 173.99 million tons, an increase of 12.7% over the same period last year. Under strict control in the first half of the year, China's total coal imports still reached a high of 174 million tons, far exceeding the same period last year. At present, under the influence of global public health incidents, demand from major coal importing countries in the world is weak, and international coal prices continue to decline. Currently, the FOB price of 5,500 kcal Australian coal is around US$ 37.5/ton, and the FOB price of 3,800 kcal Indonesian coal is 23.5-24.5. About US$/ton. "International coal prices continue to decline, and the price gap with my country's domestic coal trade has further widened. If the import clearance policy is relaxed, it is expected that imports in the second half of the year will still increase significantly compared with the first half of the year. Imports in 2020 must be more than 300 million tons. The control efforts in the first half of the year will be burned." Ren Huiyun said.

　　 In the first half of the year, China’s thermal coal prices generally followed a “16-DPA” curve. After a small increase, a high downward, and a bottoming rebound, the supply and demand pattern continued to be mismatched. "After entering July, downstream demand is still relatively sluggish. If imports are relaxed at this time, it will have a huge impact on the domestic coal market, which is not conducive to the healthy development of the domestic market. The possibility of easing my country's 16-DPA import policy is extremely limited." Ren Huiyun said .

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